Oliver Wyman’s latest commercial airline transport fleet and MRO forecast, covering 2017-2027, is done.
Big-picture figures from the forecast’s detailed summary report (.pdf) include a 3.8% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the global MRO market, with spend rising from $75.6 billion this year to $109.2 billion in 2027.
Reduced touch-labor costs and longer heavy-check intervals for the composite-heavy newest-generation designs, led by the Boeing 787 and Airbus A350, will help reduce airframe maintenance’s share of the MRO pie by about 4% during the forecast period. Engine maintenance will gobble up all of the demand.
Among other notable facts and figures from the report:
- Oliver Wyman projects 20,400 new aircraft deliveries split evenly between replacement of in-service aircraft and growth. (Its 2016 forecast had a 53%-47% in favor of replacement aircraft.)
- By 2027, the active fleet’s average age will be 9.7 years, “a significant reduction” from 2017’s 11.2 years.
- The MRO market CAGR for the 10-year forecast period is 3.8%, though it is weighted toward the second half of the decade (5.2% per year, 2022-2027) after a slower start (2.4% per year through 2021).
- 2017 shares by MRO segment: Engine—39%; Airframe—23%; Component—21%; Line maintenance—17%.
- 2027 shares by MRO segment: Engine—44%; Component—21%; Airframe—19%; Line maintenance—17%.
- Forecast period CAGR by segment: Engine—4.9%; Component, 4.0%; Line maintenance–3.5; Airframe—1.4%
- Over the forecast period, the most rapid retirements by fleet will be the 767, 777, and A330/A340, along with most of the remaining 747-400s.
- The 767 will account for the majority of all widebody freighter conversions.